2018 N.B.A. Draft Results: Analysis of Every Pick in Round 1
• The Phoenix Suns took the Arizona big man Deandre Ayton with the first pick in the 2018 N.B.A. draft.
• Missouri power forward Michael Porter Jr. finally comes off the board at No. 14, to the Denver Nuggets. His back issues had scared teams away.
• Marc Stein, our N.B.A. columnist, broke the news of the first three picks and the Mavericks-Hawks trade.
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1. Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona
7 feet, 250 pounds
Ayton comes off as a bit of a throwback to the days when dominant big men ruled the draft. He is legitimately over 7 feet tall in shoes and has a massive frame that likely is underestimated by his listed weight; the assumption that he can’t keep up with the current guard-dominated version of the N.B.A. is fairly reasonable.
But in his lone season at Arizona, when he averaged 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds a game, he showed quickness, agility and just enough shooting ability to thrive in the modern offensive game. His lack of defensive polish — which could be inexperience or could be a lack of interest — probably pushes his ceiling to somewhere below that of Luka Doncic and Mo Bamba, but his floor is probably higher than either of those top prospects.
How he fits: Ayton has said that he and Devin Booker can be a modern day Shaq and Kobe, and while he may be overestimating his two-way impact by comparing himself to Shaquille O’Neal, the team will be jam-packed with talented youngers with not just Ayton and Booker but also T.J. Warren and Josh Jackson. At some point that core has to go from potential to production, and Ayton may be the missing piece.
2. Sacramento Kings: Marvin Bagley III, C, Duke
6 feet 11 inches, 235 pounds
He would traditionally fit the mold of a power forward, but in today’s N.B.A. he could play the 4 or the 5. He is a skilled offensive player with a toolbox in the paint that should help him produce immediately, and there is reason to believe his game could extend away from the basket some if he’s given time to develop. He has yet to show consistent defensive effort, but the ability is there to lock down opponents, and if he can be even average on that end, his offensive skill makes him an enormous asset.
How he fits: The Kings tried to add a bunch of older veterans to the team last season and another sub-30-win season ensued. Adding the offensively inclined Bagley to a front line with a defensive specialist like Willie Cauley-Stein is ideal.
Between a potential breakout season by De’Aaron Fox and the sharpshooting of Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic, there may be something special brewing. But to get there the Kings will need to trust the kids to do it themselves.
3. Atlanta Hawks: Luka Doncic, PG, Real Madrid
6 feet 7 inches, 220 pounds
Doncic was in a top European league at 16, was a regular contributor at 17, and 19 has already led Slovenia to a gold medal at EuroBasket and Real Madrid to a EuroLeague Championship, where he was named the competition’s most valuable player. So in a draft filled with college freshmen, he stands out as someone who has already proven himself against full-grown adults. He will not wow anyone with his agility, but he is a gifted ball-handler who has room to get far stronger. He holds his own on the defensive side and could easily step in as an immediate starter unlike the occasional European projects over the years that have somewhat muddled the continent’s reputation.
How he fits: The Times’ Marc Stein was the first to report that the Hawks were making this pick for the Dallas Mavericks, who have targeted Doncic to be their new face of the franchise and heir to Dirk Nowitzki as the future Hall of Famer heads into his 21st season. Doncic is arguably the most talented player in this draft and, thanks to his extensive EuroLeague and national team experience, should be ready to step right into the Mavericks’ starting lineup alongside Dennis Smith Jr. and Harrison Barnes.
4. Memphis Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson Jr., PF, Michigan State
6 feet 11 inches, 236 pounds
At just 18 years old, Jackson is one of the youngest players eligible for this year’s draft, but he showed enough in his lone season at Michigan State to be named the Big Ten’s defensive player of the year. He’s extremely quick for a player of his size, and plays much taller than his listed height thanks to a wingspan that was measured at 7 feet 5.25 inches at the draft combine.
His game needs a lot of refinement — especially when it comes to avoiding foul trouble — but his combination of elite rim protection and above-average shooting is a perfect fit for the 3-and-D style that so many teams like.
5. Dallas Mavericks: Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
6 feet 2 inches, 180 pounds
Young is either the next Steph Curry or a mistake-prone underachiever who has already been figured out by the competition. Or something in-between (but that’s boring). He was an absolute sensation early in the year, and finished with averages of 27.4 points and 8.7 assists a game.
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But his production tailed off as scouting reports got more focused on how to attack him, which was seemingly never compensated for in Oklahoma’s game-plan. He’s small, hasn’t shown much promise defensively, and is used to being a one-man show, so his adjustment to a life where he can’t control everything will be interesting to watch.
How he fits: The pick may have been made by Dallas, but it is widely believed that Young and a 2019 first round pick are heading to Atlanta in exchange for Luka Doncic. Young will free the team up to trade away the disgruntled Dennis Schroder. With the talent-depleted Hawks, Young’s usage rate might not actually take a dip from his Oklahoma days.
6. Orlando Magic: Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas
7 feet, 225 pounds
You might not get two people to agree on what Bamba’s ceiling is, or how likely he is to reach it, but it is not hard to see why people are so excited by an athletic and skilled player who broke the N.B.A. combine record for wingspan measurement, reaching an absurd 7 feet 10 inches. (His standing reach is a full three inches taller than any player measured at the combine.)
There is a sense that he is still learning how to use his body and that he will need some time to catch up to the skill and speed of the game, but he is N.B.A.-ready in rim protection and has shown the ability to produce offensively even if he has yet to show it consistently.
How he fits: Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier have been dripping with potential for years, and Bamba can effectively take over the team’s interior defense. Replacing the slow-footed Nikola Vucevic with the hyper-athletic Bamba seems like a better fit with the rest of the team’s starters and there isn’t a need for him to develop offensively immediately.
7. Chicago Bulls: Wendell Carter Jr., C, Duke
6 feet 10 inches, 259 pounds
He played on a front line with Marvin Bagley III at Duke, which limited some of his scoring ability, but there is every reason to believe Carter can be a productive player on both ends of the court, with a body that seemingly makes him an ideal modern center. He has lost some weight in the leadup to the draft but will still likely play a physical style of the game that led him to some foul trouble at Duke but might serve him well in the pros.
How he fits: The second Duke player taken in the first seven picks, Carter will join a big front line with Lauri Markkanen. Should Robin Lopez stay in town, Carter will have an excellent role model for how to maximize his defensive potential.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers: Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama
6 feet 2 inches, 190 pounds
Sexton managed to stand out as a scorer for a stacked 2017 FIBA U17 World Championship team and then averaged 19.2 points a game running Avery Johnson’s offense at Alabama. He is still developing as a passer, and likely has a long way to go in that regard, but he can score immediately and has the physical tools to play high-impact defense.
How he fits: This is the prize Cleveland got in the Kyrie Irving trade and he has a tough road ahead of him to justify the deal (even if that’s not even close to fair). His future hinges so heavily on whether or not LeBron James stays with the Cavs that it’s impossible to evaluate Sexton’s fit other than to point out that if James truly wants to handle the ball less, Sexton seems like a good option (even if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was probably a better fit).
9. New York Knicks: Kevin Knox, SF, Kentucky
6 feet 9 inches, 213 pounds
He is big enough that converting into a stretch-4 would be possible, opening up all kinds of options for Knox. He could exploit a severe advantage in quickness over his more lumbering opponents; he averaged 15.6 points a game as a freshman but that number could increase dramatically if his shooting becomes more consistent.
He is already good enough defensively to keep himself on the floor, but he may need to pack on considerable weight to help with durability if his team chooses to play him against larger forwards.
How he fits: Depending on how the Knicks want to play things, they could go with Kristaps Porzingis at the 5 and Knox at the 4, which certainly wouldn’t match up with the toughness of their ‘90s squads, but might make for something interesting in that they’d be playing “small” with a guy who is 7-foot-3 and another who is 6-foot-9.
10. Philadelphia 76ers: Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova
Mikal Bridges
SF, Villanova
6 feet 7 inches, 209 pounds
A junior! Bridges had to work to get where he is, but last season he broke out for 17.7 points and 5.3 assists a game while shooting 44 percent from 3-point range. He’s big enough to create his own shots, smart enough to help his team when he doesn’t have the ball, and skilled enough to match up defensively with elite guards and small forwards. He could stand to get a bit stronger, but his two-way impact could be Klay Thompson-like.
How he fits: At 21 years old, Bridges is basically a peer with Philadelphia’s young stars, which may help him be in sync with their development, whereas going with an 18- or 19-year-old would have had a team hoping for 60 wins simultaneously trying to develop a teenager. With Joel Embiid clogging up the middle, and Ben Simmons able to find players in space like a seasoned pro, Bridges may have unlimited open looks as a rookie, and there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll take full advantage.
11. Charlotte Hornets: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky
6 feet 6 inches, 180 pounds
In a draft stacked with players 6-foot-10 and above, Gilgeous-Alexander can’t quite match that height, but he still fits the theme of length as an enormous point guard. He got better as the year went along for Kentucky and was instrumental in the team’s advancement to the N.C.A.A. tournament’s round of eight, finishing the year with averages of 14.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists a game. He excels at getting to the rim, but he has shown enough promise as a shooter to make it believable that he could contribute at either guard position.
How he fits: A higher-rated prospect than several players that were picked ahead of him, Gilgeous-Alexander is speculated to have communicated to Cleveland that he did not want to go to the Cavaliers at No. 8. That is a huge boon to Charlotte, which may use him as a shooting guard next to Kemba Walker but regardless got great value this deep into the draft.
12. Los Angeles Clippers: Miles Bridges, SF, Michigan State
6 feet 7 inches, 225 pounds
After an eye-popping freshman season, Bridges made the surprising choice to return for a sophomore year and was even better, averaging 17.1 points and 7 rebounds a game. He makes wise decisions with his body movements, can jump out of the room and has the strength to handle bigger players even if his height and arms put him a bit behind some of the players he will be asked to guard. He can succeed in several offensive scenarios but is not a standout at any particular skill, which is a little unusual in a hyper-specialized era. But his versatility may be comforting for coaches looking to expand their offensive options.
How he fits: It is not official yet, but it appears Bridges, who was officially picked by the Clippers, is headed to Charlotte. That creates fewer fit problems next to Kemba Walker but creates some ambiguity as to what roles Bridges and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will fill.
13. Los Angeles Clippers: Jerome Robinson, SG, Boston College
6 feet 5 inches, 190 pounds
A scorer who can handle either guard spot, Robinson went from being ignored coming out of high school to averaging 20.7 points a game in his junior season at Boston College. Despite plenty of production, he has question marks based on his thin frame and a pervasive belief that he can contribute to a team effort but may not have it in him to thrive on his own.
How he fits: The Clippers already added a point guard in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but Jerry West must believe the two players can co-exist. That being said, this pick seems like a reach with plenty of players with more potential still on the board.
14: Denver Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr., PF, Missouri
6 feet 10 inches, 210 pounds
He played just 53 minutes of his freshman season as a result of back surgery, and a hip issue in the leadup to the draft added more concern about his body. That he is still considered a top prospect is a testament to how well regarded Porter was coming out of high school. When healthy he is a great leaper, can move almost like a giant guard and can reliably score both inside and out. The optimist would point out that Kyrie Irving only played 303 minutes of his freshman year of college and blossomed into a star. The pessimist would say that a foot problem for a guard is not the equivalent of a back problem for a big and that Porter’s brief return in the postseason is hardly proof that his troubles are behind him.
How he fits: If his health is O.K., the Nuggets just got the best pick in the draft. If it isn’t, they wasted an opportunity to add another major piece to go with their three-man core of Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray. Assuming he can keep himself on the court, Porter is a perfect complement to those players.
Sacramento Wanted Porter at No. 2 but Backed Off
Marc Stein: Rival teams had been whispering — as recently as Monday — that the Missouri forward Michael Porter Jr. was under consideration by Sacramento with the No. 2 overall pick. But the back issues that limited Porter to three games in college have dropped him all the way to No. 14 and the Denver Nuggets. At the very least, Porter still manages to go in the lottery — but only with the final pick among lottery teams.
Early Winners: Dallas and Atlanta
Marc Stein: On a night like draft night, when all teams can dare to dream, both Dallas and Atlanta feel like they’ve already won tonight’s big trade. The Mavericks acquired the draft rights to the prized Slovenian teen-age Luka Doncic without having to take back any unwanted salary from the Hawks. Atlanta, meanwhile, acquires the draft rights to general manager Travis Schlenk’s top target — Oklahoma sharpshooter Trae Young — and picks up a 2019 first-round pick in the process from the Mavericks that will convey to the Hawks next June as long as the pick falls outside of the top five.
15. Washington Wizards: Troy Brown, SF, Oregon
6 feet 7 inches, 215 pounds
A member of the heralded 2016 FIBA U-17 World Championship team, Brown is a do-everything wing who has the potential to be a two-way standout. His numbers don’t leap off the page, but his success in any role Oregon put him in makes him a versatile option in the mold of Andre Iguodala. He would benefit from landing on a team that is willing to use his versatility to its advantage.
How he fits: Could he be the glue guy that fixes what has been missing in Washington? He doesn’t have to be a go-to scorer with John Wall and Bradley Beal in town, so the Wizards may be a team that lets Brown do all of the other little things he excels at, which is probably ideal at least in the early portion of his career.
16. Phoenix Suns: Zhaire Smith, SF, Texas Tech
6 feet 4 inches, 199 pounds
If Smith were a bit taller, or had a tad more offensive polish, he’d be far higher on most draft boards, but the elite athlete and top-notch defender has enough question marks about where he fits on the court to scare some teams off. He is a quick, active and smart defender who can step right into the league. His long arms let him play larger than his 6-foot-4 frame, but he was rarely asked to do much offensively in college, and there is no proof that he can step up to that challenge if given the opportunity.
How he fits: There are reports that Smith could be heading to Philadelphia in a trade, so it is hard to evaluate how he will fit, but should he be headed to the Sixers it will certainly make things interesting as to the team bringing back J.J. Redick, who was on a one-year deal last season. Unlike Mikal Bridges, who seemed like a good development fit with Philadelphia, Smith may take some time to develop.
17: Milwaukee Bucks: Donte DiVincenzo, SG, Villanova
6 feet 5 inches, 201 pounds
He’s played on two of the last three N.C.A.A. champion teams, and had a huge 31-point performance in this year’s national championship game. But that combined with a strong showing at the draft combine still has some people shrugging at his pro potential. His maximum-effort style plays well in college, and he tests as a decent athlete, but there is fear that he may not have the high-end game to thrive in the pros. (They said the same things about Jimmy Butler.)
How he fits: For years the Bucks have drafted on maximum potential, and while they have ended up with some tremendous athletes (and one of the most dynamic young players in the game in Giannis Antetokounmpo) it has yet to result in them taking a leap as a team. Going with a player like DiVincenzo, who thrived in a winning culture and is more of a sure thing in several regards might be a masterstroke. But the Bucks left a lot of terrific options on the board to take him.
Marc Tracy: Donte DiVincenzo going 17th is quietly remarkable. Just a few months ago he was considered likely to be at Villanova another year. A commanding performance in the Final Four, and then a terrific N.B.A. combine, helped him get here. As I wrote earlier today, there’s actually a logic to teams buying high on a great N.C.A.A. run.
18. San Antonio Spurs: Lonnie Walker IV, SG, Miami
6 feet 4 inches, 196 pounds
He got off to a slow enough start to his freshman year to make his season average of 11.5 points per game a little misleading. He is a terrific spot-up shooter, has shown an ability to create for himself on occasion and has the leaping skills to put on a show at the rim. His strong build has been a major asset for him and could eventually lead to him being a solid defender even if he is not quite there yet.
19: Atlanta Hawks: Kevin Huerter, SG, Maryland
6 feet 7 inches, 190 pounds
He came into the draft combine with the reputation of a shooter and left with people wondering how much more he is capable of, which isn’t surprising considering his 38-inch vertical leap and his top-10 performances in several agility drills. He’s still the kind of defender where people talk about his effort so much that you worry about his ability, but when you shoot 41.7 percent from 3-point range (with a widespread belief that he has the range to continue that at the N.B.A. level) and prove that you’re not a dud of an athlete, being a try-hard defender might be enough.
How he fits: On the rebuilding Hawks, Huerter can play immediately next to Trae Young and his flaws can be worked out as the young team learns how to play. That type of environment could be perfect for a player who is going to struggle at first.
20: Minnesota Timberwolves: Josh Okogie, SG, Georgia Tech
6 feet 4 inches, 211 pounds
A breakout sophomore season in which he averaged 16.1 points and 5.4 rebounds a game wasn’t enough to get the kind of draft assurances that Okogie wanted, but then the draft combine rolled around and his performance got people to pay attention. He may have been the best pure athlete among all of the wings who agreed to be evaluated. He’s fast, strong, agile and could be a huge steal in the draft, as he has not garnered nearly as much attention as players who he could run circles around athletically.
How he fits: This pick was acquired in the Ricky Rubio trade last season, and the Timberwolves, who did fine without Rubio, have added a player who can add a lot without stepping on the toes of any of the team’s stars. The potential is there for Tom Thibodeau to coach him into something special if he’s willing to work.
21. Utah Jazz: Grayson Allen, SG, Duke
6 feet 5 inches, 195 pounds
There are few players as polarizing as Allen, who had all of Christian Laettner’s personality as a Duke villain but fell short of his consistent production. Figuring out how he fits as a pro is confusing at best, as his top-shelf production of his sophomore year was not repeated during his junior or senior years.
But his performance at the draft combine gave credence to the belief that he has been underrated in terms of athleticism. At his core he is a strong outside shooter and an aggressive, if incomplete, defensive player. Once you get past the tripping incidents, there is likely a productive player hiding under the sneers and mop of hair.
How he fits: The Utah Jazz will likely never be a free-agent destination (and they even have a hard time retaining their own players once their contracts expire) so the draft is potentially more vital for them than for any other team. That’s why taking a risk on Allen is a bit surprising when he is not even one of the five best players left on the board. They must truly believe in his shooting and his combine performance.
Marc Stein: The Utah Jazz had a great season and can certainly claim to have enjoyed an intriguing draft night. The selection of Duke’s Grayson Allen — merely the seventh consecutive wing player selected in the draft — should give Utah another quality rotation player for one of the West’s rising forces. Why do I always say LeBron James should stay in the East? Because the West’s depth is such that, beyond Golden State and Houston, too many tough outs like Utah loom.
Marc Tracy: You will be shocked to hear that fans here are booing the announcement of Grayson Allen. And Grayson is here, in the stands! Wendell Carter Jr.’s mom is waving to him as he makes his way down. #moms
22. Chicago Bulls: Chandler Hutchison, SG, Boise State
6 feet 7 inches, 196 pounds
His production as a senior was hard to ignore, as he averaged 20 points and 7.7 rebounds a game, but there is some question as to how much of that was a result of him simply being the ball dominant player for a lesser team. He has worked on his shooting and has the tools to play defense but is a bit of a project until he can show consistent success against tougher competition.
How he fits: Another piece for Chicago’s dynamic young front-court who should have the luxury of developing a bit slower than he may have been asked to for other teams.
23. Indiana Pacers: Aaron Holiday, PG, U.C.L.A.
6 feet 1 inch, 187 pounds
The little brother of Jrue and Justin Holiday, Aaron did not break out for the Bruins until his junior year, but he made up for lost time with averages of 20.3 points and 5.8 assists a game. He’s small, but he’s a tireless athlete who has improved every aspect of his game as he moved through the college ranks, and he is a strong enough on defense to overlook the questions that would typically arise for a player of his size who took so long to find his role in college.
How he fits: Holiday and Victor Oladipo form a fairly small backcourt, but with Holiday’s defensive virtues, the size shouldn’t be that much of a concern. The guards could potentially share the ball-handling duties, which might be a good change for Oladipo who could focus more on scoring.
24: Portland Trail Blazers: Anfernee Simons, SG, IMG Academy
6 feet 3 inches, 183 pounds
Essentially a prep-to-pro as he chose to work out at IMG rather than enter college, Simons plays fast, can shoot in virtually any scenario and can handle the pick and roll. He likely won’t be ready to contribute defensively, especially after a year away from consistent competition, but at this point in the draft his high ceiling excuses his fairly low floor.
How he fits: Another guard in Portland? It’s a little weird. But they must have thought that no player on the board could match Simons’s talent, and having too many good guards is a problem that could be solved with a trade.
25: Los Angeles Lakers: Moritz Wagner, C, Michigan
6 feet 11 inches, 240 pounds
A German native who came to the United States for college, Wagner is a center, but he has enough versatility to space the floor on offense. He hasn’t shown much defensively, but as a key member of a team that made a surprising run in the N.C.A.A. tournament, he declared for the draft and has capitalized on the opportunity.
How he fits: More of a true center than Julius Randle, Wagner probably shouldn’t get too comfortable with the roster (or even the thought of being on it) as the Lakers are rumored to be in on every significant free agent. Every player on their roster could be in jeopardy of losing their spot.
26: Philadelphia 76ers: Landry Shamet, PG, Wichita State
6 feet 5 inches, 189 pounds
He can pass the ball and doesn’t embarrass himself defensively, but Shamet’s value is mostly tied up in his shooting. He’s a 43.7 percent career shooter from 3-point range and his accuracy has gone up as he’s taken more shots. Even if he can’t do anything else, that alone would make him a useful player late in the first round.
How he fits: The Sixers never seem to run out of first-round picks, and Shamet could certainly help the team as a shooter. But as has been discussed in many places, the team’s ability to sign LeBron James would be contingent on not ending up with another salary on the books, so Shamet shouldn’t unpack any time soon.
27: Boston Celtics: Robert Williams, C, Texas A&M
6 feet 10 inches, 237 pounds
His long arms make him play far larger than his height would indicate, as does his leaping ability, making him an instant impact player on defense. That’s backed up by his having won the SEC’s defensive player of the year award in each of his two college seasons. He could end up having more impact defensively than even a top prospect like Mo Bamba, but his offensive play has been so limited in the role he was asked to fill that he is a total question mark in that regard.
How he fits: The Celtics appear to be on the verge of saying goodbye to Aron Baynes, who did a great job as their backup center. Williams will be an instant contributor on defense, should he stick with the team, and on a roster as loaded Boston’s, that would be perfectly fine.
On talent, Williams was a top-15 pick, so this is found money for Boston.
28: Golden State Warriors: Jacob Evans, SF, Cincinnati
6 feet 6 inches, 200 pounds
A 3-and-D option who excels at catch-and-shoot opportunities, Evans never got the opportunity to truly break out in college. He showed enough versatility, and put on enough muscle, to make himself into a first-round prospect after having been something less than that following his first two years of college.
How he fits: Like a glove. Golden State’s second unit badly needed another shooter, as evidenced by their dramatic lack of wing depth when Andre Iguodala was injured in the postseason. Evans can essentially take Nick Young’s roster spot, become a go-to shooter off the bench and work his way into the rotation as a defensive contributor.
29: Brooklyn Nets: Dzanan Musa, SF, Cedevita
6 feet 9 inches, 195 pounds
Musa was a crucial bench scorer for Cedevita, thriving in the pick and roll and showing a keen ability in the spot up play. At one point there were grave concerns about his build and his defense, but he has put in the work leading up to the draft to make the concept of him being a complete player — rather than just points in a jersey — a lot less ridiculous. The team that drafts him, however, should be content with his scoring for the foreseeable future instead of assuming that his recent changes will stick.
How he fits: The Nets are finally out of the draft purgatory created by the Kevin Garnett trade, and Musa gives them some serious potential as a scorer even if he probably can’t contribute, at least immediately, on the same level as a player like Gary Trent Jr. or Khyri Thomas.
30: Atlanta Hawks: Omari Spellman, PF, Villanova
6 feet 9 inches, 255 pounds
His inability to graduate high school on time forced him to sit out his true freshman season at Villanova, but he took the time to lose weight and sharpen his game, and he turned himself into a dynamic stretch-4. He can handle himself on defense and seems to have the work ethic necessary to continue to improve.
How he fits: The Hawks already got a pair of guards, so at the end of the first round they grabbed a potential gem for their front line. The resilience he showed in sticking with things when he dealt with the ineligibility ruling is likely a good sign of character and he basically willed himself into being a first-round player.
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